The enigma of the Western crusade against Ethiopia

ONE thing that has been most incomprehensible for many Ethiopian observers, activists, and politicians is the barrage of one-sided criticisms coming from Western capitals since the eruption in November of an armed conflict between the federal government and the TPLF’s (Tigray People’s Liberation Front) controlled northern region of Tigray.

The criticisms were followed by the implementation of various sanctions that elevated the surprise to the level of utter consternation. The deep differences over the direction of the country under the reformist leadership of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed constitute the underlying causes of the conflict.

The immediate cause of the war, however, was the surprise attack of TPLF militia forces on the national defence forces stationed in Tigray. The Ethiopian government launched an all-out counter-offensive that it baptised a “law enforcement operation”, which resulted in the quick and complete disbanding of TPLF forces.

Unsurprisingly, severe humanitarian crises ranging from food shortages and killings of civilians to massive displacements into a neighbouring country followed the military confrontation.

In light of the sudden and unprovoked attack on the Ethiopian national forces, the expectation of the Ethiopian government and most Ethiopians was that Western governments and opinions would see the Ethiopian counter-offensive as a legitimate move of self-defence and law enforcement.

The expectation never came to fruition. Instead, the Ethiopian troops were accused of violations that included the killings of innocent civilians, the rapes of women, the deliberate destruction of properties and engagement in genocidal acts.

To make matters worse, the involvement in the counter-offensive of Eritrean troops and Amhara militia forces, both reputed to be quite hostile to the Tigrean people, made the accusations of massive human rights violations even more credible.

The result is that everything is turned upside down: the attacker is now seen as a victim. The Ethiopian surprise is all the harder to contain as Western governments did not show the same eagerness to express their condemnations during the 27 years of the TPLF’s horrific rule of Ethiopia.

Even when repression became so intensified that it compelled the legislative branch of the US government to break the silence, no action of punishment was taken.

To crown it all, then president Barack Obama described the TPLF’s government as a “democratically elected government” during his August 2015 visit in Ethiopia, even as all the 547 seats in the parliament were taken by its members and supporters, and numerous activists and political leaders were languishing in jail where they were routinely tortured.

Nor are Western governments expressing any outrage over the well documented recent massacre in MaiKadra of scores of Amhara residents by the TPLF forces in the wake of their retreat from advancing government troops and Amhara militia forces.

After a pause of disbelief, the only conclusion left for Ethiopians was to say the TPLF remains the favourite ally of Western governments, and their hostility toward the present government is an attempt to come to its rescue.

For any impartial observer, the silence of Western governments on the atrocities committed during the TPLF’s tyrannical rule of Ethiopia is proof enough that the accusation of systematic widespread and gross violations of human rights by Ethiopian, Eritrean and Amhara armed forces is just a smokescreen for underlying geopolitical concerns.

According to the Western assessment, not only is the on-going war in Tigray aggravating the ethnic tensions internal to Ethiopia, but also the involvement of Eritrean troops will have a destabilising impact on the entire Horn of Africa.

In addition, the dispute between Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan over the Nile dam and the looming war with Sudan over border disputes have the potential of igniting the flame of war across the whole region.

To prevent all these calamities, the Western position prescribes the restoration of peace in Tigray through a negotiated settlement with the TPLF as the first necessary step, even though the TPLF, which started an unprovoked war, is severely incapacitated as a result of its crushing military defeat.

The negotiation should be extended to all other opposing parties, with the goal of reaching “a wider national reconciliation process” in Ethiopia (G7 Foreign Ministers’ Statement on the Situation in Tigray, Ethiopia, April2, 2021). At first look, the proposed solution seems a reasonable one in that negotiations and national reconciliation are usually conducive to restoration of peace. Unfortunately, one has to be totally or fraudulently ignorant of the situation in Ethiopia to propose such a remedy.

The proposal to negotiate with a party widely abhorred for its atrocities and its use of ethnicity as a divideand-rule tactic to achieve political and economic hegemony, even though it represented a region with only 6% of the Ethiopian population, is a slap in the face of Ethiopians.

As to the inclusion of other opposing parties, their own extremist, and sometimes even secessionist, ethnonationalist ideologies prevent them participating in the mainstream of Ethiopian politics. So the proposed negotiation has no chance of succeeding, still less of reinstating peace.

On the contrary, it has the potential of intensifying ethnic clashes already under way all over the country, with the result that the country will be engulfed in an uncontrollable civil war. Clearly, the Libyan tragic experience of removing a government without a viable alternative has not yet dawned on Western governments.

What, then, is preventing Western governments from seeing what is but obvious for so many Ethiopians? Since the concern for humanitarian crises is not believable, there remains the geopolitical interest of the West.

The point is that the Western reactions and measures cannot be justified in terms of geopolitical considerations.

The best that they can achieve is to weaken the Ethiopian state, which so far has been the only reliable stabilizing force in the Horn.

It can also give free rein to ethnonationalist forces within Ethiopia itself, turning the spectre of civil war into an unavoidable reality.